Gambling for Re-election

October 8, 2026| Source: Economic Journal

Abstract We show that gambling-style behaviour is important in politics: politicians ‛gamble for re-election‚ in the context of a political leader selection. We exploit unique access to leaked information on MPs' individual decisions in the 2021 leadership election of Germany's centre-right parties. MPs are more likely to vote for a riskier candidate when facing lower re-election chances. These results match the predictions derived from our model of rational risk-taking. Gambling for re-election

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